Economics

You cannot turn an economy off, then turn it back on. Here are the results when hubris makes you think you found the magic switch. Part 2.

Modern Cargo container ship giving an idea of the amount of cargo that can be carried. Each of those containers is one semi-load on the freeway. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Seems like most industries have a tangled supply chain. The entire transportation system is sorely distressed.

The elitists in federal and state governments have a staggering level of hubris. They think waving their hands, clicking away on their laptops, and issuing press releases will make the entire economy bend to their will. What they accomplish is willfully causing disruption in your life and in my life.

Here are merely a few of the recent articles describing the tangled impact of Covid dictats and sundry government policies:

  • Lots of cargo ships are waiting to unload off the California coast.
  • Large port operator expects disruptions to last into 2023.
  • Workers in transportation sector warn of possible system collapse.
  • Chip shortage for carmakers will last into late 2022.

Looks like it might take another 15 or 18 months to untangle the worldwide supply chain.

Wall Street Journal – 8/17/21 – Cargo Ships Are Again Idling Off Jammed Southern California Ports – Back in the middle of August the tally of cargo ships sitting off to coast of California was 37.

A tweet I saw this morning (10/9/21) from someone flying out of Long Beach indicated the individual counted 50 ships waiting to unload.

At around 10,000 containers per ship that is somewhere around 370,000 containers waiting to be unloaded back in the middle of August and is now currently somewhere in the range of half a million containers sitting off the coast.

Article says a few months ago it was only nine. Normally it is zero.

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By Jim Ulvog, ago

You cannot turn an economy off, then turn it back on. Here are the results when hubris makes you think you found the magic switch. Part 1.

Random stock outages are still common. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

The supply chain in most industries is tangled up somehow somewhere.

The people in federal and state governments with the staggering level of hubris to think they can wave their hands and make the entire economy do their bidding are willfully causing disruption in your life and in my life.

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By Jim Ulvog, ago

Consumer Price Index again showing strong inflation in July 2021.

The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, shows 0.5% price increases in July with a core increase of 0.3%. While that is the lowest increase since February 2021, half a percent in one month works out to about 6% in a year.

(Discussion cross-posted from Attestation Update because the inflation we are now seeing is a direct and expected consequence of policies at the federal level. Serious levels of inflation impact our economic and political freedom.)

Graph at top of this post shows the monthly change in the primary index along with the core change which excludes food and energy. Graph also shows an average of the preceding 12 months.

The average was running around 0.1% a month for most of 2020 after the shock of the pandemic. You can see the rising monthly increase quite visibly, starting in January 2021. Watch the green line increase from around 0.1% up to currently 0.4%.

The trailing 12 month average is also grim. It shows:

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By Jim Ulvog, ago

What does the economy wide staffing shortage look like?

Status of many restaurants. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

What does it look like from the customer side when businesses cannot find enough employees? My wife and I found out a few days ago.

After relaxing on Memorial Day, pondering the ultimate sacrifice by so many to provide the freedoms we enjoy, and exercising those freedoms, we decided to go out to eat. We went to Victoria Gardens, a large shopping center near our home.

Since the tradition for the day is cooking cheeseburgers on the grill but we don’t have a grill, we picked a ‘50s style café where we could get a cheeseburger and sweet potato fries. Yum!

Normally they would be open until 10 or 11 o’clock. Walking up to the restaurant we saw a paper sign taped to the door announcing they were only open until 8 PM.

Odd.

The door was locked. There were a few staff inside who appeared to be going through their end-of-day cleanup routine.

It was a few minutes after 6 p.m.

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By Jim Ulvog, ago

Still more grim news from the lockdown.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

The bad news caused by the government imposed shut down of the economy keeps rolling in.

Merely a few recent articles:

  • The “laptop class” did well, while the working class was delivering their stuff, taking on the risks of infection.
  • Rents in New York City are in freefall.
  • Record levels in discount off the posted tuition rate for private colleges, which is an indicator of collapsing demand and indicator of future financial distress.
  • Millions are unemployed while companies can’t find enough workers.

5/20/21 – Glenn Reynolds at New York Post – The rich and powerful thrived as the rest of us suffered in the year of lockdowns – Fourteen months of the “two weeks to slow the spread” has shown that the rich and powerful did quite well while working class and poor folk suffered.

The laptop class was able to stay at home, fully employed with no loss of income. In fact, with no commuting costs and not eating out for lunch many in the laptop class were left better off.

They stayed home and the working class delivered their stuff.

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By Jim Ulvog, ago

Background on the inflation environment.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

(As with the previous discussion, this comment is cross-posted from my other blog, Attestation Update. This information is useful not just for CPAs interpreting the financial results of their clients, but also for readers of this blog, because the rapid run-up of inflation fears is a risk to economic freedom. If we return to the devastating inflation rates of the 1970s, we would see severely harm to economic freedom.)

Previous post suggested It’s time to start monitoring inflation. The dramatic increase in inflation rate in March and April 2021 suggests we need to be watching the inflation numbers more closely.

Not only does this help us generally understand what is going on around us, but specifically it helps us understand and interpret our clients’ financial results as we provide audit and review services.

A few articles I have found helpful in the recent weeks providing context on the inflation environment:

5/5/21 – Wall Street Journal – Everything Screams Inflation – Columnist senses a possible shifting point from the low inflation we have seen for a very long time, going back to a sustained period of high inflation.

He cites five general trends which point towards years of high inflation:

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By Jim Ulvog, ago