Why I am so optimistic – 3

The future is so bright we need sunglasses. Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

The future is so bright we need sunglasses. Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

The number of people working in manufacturing has been declining for many years. Those job losses will continue at the same time as technology disrupts other industries causing the loss of more jobs.

This is not a new concept. Technological advances have devastated farm employment over the last 150 years.

(Cross-post from my other blog, Nonprofit Update.)

Prof. Thomas Tunstall pondered Where the New Jobs Will Come From. Sub headline on his 11/4/15 article said:

In 2007 iPhone application developers didn’t exist. By 2011 Apple had $15 billion in mobile-app revenues.

Consider the percentage of the population employed in agriculture over time: (more…)

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Quick recap of damage from the New Deal

Lack of jobs for a decade and a half in the Great Depression. What could have slowed the economic recovery that started to appear a few times?

Amity Schlaes provides a quick summary in her Forbes column, Roosevelts versus Plutocrats, in which she also describes the slant and bias in the new PBS series on the Roosevelts.

After the turn of the century, Teddy Roosevelt started his war on big business by going after railroads and coal. The railroad industry was already weak and the litigation toppled a tottering industry. The far less regulated trucking industry made sure rails never recovered.

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Illustration of creative destruction: lots of Fortune 500 companies disappeared over the last 60 years

What sets apart each of these groups of companies?

Group A: American Motors, Brown Shoe, Studebaker, Collins Radio, Detroit Steel, Zenith Electronics, and National Sugar Refining.

Group B: Boeing, Campbell Soup, General Motors, Kellogg, Proctor and Gamble, Deere, IBM and Whirlpool.

Group C: Facebook, eBay, Home Depot, Microsoft, Office Depot and Target.

Mark Perry, writing at Carpe Diem, explains: Fortune 500 firms in 1955 vs. 2014; 89% are gone, and we’re all better off because of that dynamic ‘creative destruction’.

(This article is cross-posted from my other blog, Outrun Change. You will see why momentarily.)

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How does this thing called creative destruction, or people losing their jobs, actually create more jobs, expand the economy, and make everyone better off?

Creative video from Prof. Bryan Caplan explains Make Progress, Not Work.

 

(cross-post from Outrun Change.) A few highlights:

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What would you call an industry that in a decade increases production 175% while reducing prices 53%? What would you call someone who *broke* a government created monopoly?

I would call that a good job by the industry.

Without more detail, I’d call trust breaker a pretty good guy.

Economics and history books I grew up with call them robber barons.

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What does radical change in technology and mass media mean to those of us who are undiscovered, unpublished, or small fry wanting to follow our own path?

Previous post discussed the huge impact from having zero cost to produce and distribute one more item.

On a long-term basis, what does this do?  I think several entire industries of delivering mass content are in serious trouble.  If those industries don’t figure out a new business model, the overwhelming change that is taking place will sink them.

Think about this:

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Free agent status for everyone!

The world of work has changed. We are all free agents.

Even if we don’t change jobs or stay with one employer for decades, we are all now free agents.

What has happened?

The nature of work has changed.

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