More actual science emerging on coronavirus infections. Results aren’t what you expect.

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An increasing number of actual scientific analyses are emerging on coronavirus infection. There is so much information out that it is quite confusing. The trend my little brain is seeing is raising substantive questions about the official narrative we’ve been told.

Articles for you to consider today:

  • Do your own research.
  • Researchers run meta-study and find minimal spread from asymptomatic or presymptomatic people.
  • Comparing 10 countries with lockdowns to 2 without, researchers find no clear benefit from shutdowns.
  • Florida is running only slightly more hospitalizations per capita in fall of 2020 than compared to the first quarter of 2018.
  • Researchers find no benefit from masks in Florida counties which require masks compared to counties without such mandates.
  • Lockdowns come with horrible side effects. We can expect an additional 900,000 excess deaths over the next decade and a half because of the extreme unemployment of the last 10 months.

Do your own research. – Don’t want to believe actual science published by someone else? Resources are available to do your own research.

For starters, check out the CDC website CDC COVID Data Tracker. That page has data for each state including total cases and cases in last seven days. It also has tallies per 100,000 people, including cases/100k, deaths/100k, seven-day-cases/100k.

Pull some data, do a bunch of calculations, and think for yourself.

I’ve pulled data from that CDC site and have done some graphing.  I’m struggling to see any beneficial correlation between infection rates in relation to mask mandates & shutdowns.

For example, Texas and Florida with light restrictions and requirements have about the same cumulative infections per 100K and deaths per 100K as do California and New York with strong restrictions and requirements. Currently, New York and California are experiencing far higher infection rates than Texas or Florida.

12/22/20 – Alachua Chronicle – University of Florida researchers find no asymptomatic or presymptomatic spread – Four researchers did a meta-study of 54 studies. They looked at secondary spread within households.

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Ongoing hypocrisy from our ruling overlords. Oh, guess who finally wants to reopen the economy?

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Feel free to laugh. Or cry if you wish. Two more politicians demonstrate they are exempt from the rules they require us lowly, common peasants to follow.

Also, two politicians realize it, um, maybe, possibly, is time to get the economy started. Oh yeah, that is in spite of infection rate spike in New York State.

Today’s source of entertainment which would be funny if the human impact from the lockdowns had not been so devastating for the last 10 months:

  • County manager in North Carolina announces she intends to ignore travel restrictions
  • It is perfectly okay for Mayor DeBlasio to have a private dance in Times Square on New Year’s Eve even as everyone else is required to stay home
  • Chicago mayor wants to reopen bars and restaurants even though the relevant statistics show it the city is a long from otherwise being able to reopen
  • New York Gov. realizes there may not be much left of the economy if we don’t open up quickly.

12/23/20 – Red State – NC Official Says She Will Travel For Christmas After Telling Residents To Stay Home. Her Justification Is Priceless – Behold the power of rationalization.

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What’s the more ethical and moral way to get rich?

Figure out what all those people can’t wait to buy and you can get quite rich. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

“Prior to capitalism, the way people amassed great wealth was by looting, plundering and enslaving their fellow man. Capitalism made it possible to become wealthy by serving your fellow man.”

Walter Williams

 

May I suggest that figuring out how to provide for the needs and wants of your neighbor in a voluntary transaction is of far higher morality than killing him, stealing his stuff, and selling off his wife and children into a lifetime of slavery?

If you want to compare capitalism and socialism then adjust the second option to just stealing his stuff and drop the killing and slavery part. The choice and the obvious answer is the same.

 

Current damage to children from lockdown and expected further damage to higher education.

What is happening to kids who don’t have a parent looking over their shoulder all day, or don’t have decent internet connection, or don’t have a newer computer? Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Studies are emerging showing the damage to children who are trying to learn remotely. I am hearing anecdotal reports that remote learning is not working, but that is only anecdotal. News reports are starting to lend credence to the intuitively obvious.

Multiple articles are indicating higher education is going to have a worse time in fall 2021 then they have now.

Check out the following:

  • Remote learning is hurting children.
  • Colleges have let go 10% of their staff during the pandemic.
  • Admissions season is looking grim.
  • Drastic drop in number of students completing the financial aid form used to access essentially all forms of financial assistance for college.

11/12/20 – American Enterprise Institute – The damage because when we close down schools – it’s worse than you think – Article says that if remote learning actually worked there should be a great result in the Netherlands are conditions are quite favorable to remote classes. However, the analysis says overall students made little progress during the brief shutdown and students from homes where there was less education for the parents suffered far more than their peers.

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Flagrant examples of hypocrisy just keep on rolling… This time $500 per person dinner with five other couples.

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It is corrosive to public trust when those in charge issue harsh rules for you and me but those making the rules can ignore them when they wish.

The corrosion will undercut our democracy, create more distrust of politicians than already exists, erode respect for public health officials, and eventually undermine compliance with all government rules not just the silly ones.

We do not want any of that to happen.

I sincerely hope governors, federal health officials, elected county officials, and everyone in the public health world will quickly realize the damage they are causing and change their ways fast.

Is it possible to shout my warning any louder?

Today’s illustration of flaming hypocrisy is from the governor of California.

As I was composing the previous post, this story broke, which is a postcard-perfect illustration of corrosive leadership.

11/13/20 – San Francisco Chronicle – Newsom attended French Laundry party with more households than California advises during pandemic – California guidelines prohibit private gatherings with more than three households.

Such gatherings may only be outside.

You may allow guests to use the bathroom if you sanitize it regularly.

In spite of these requirements, the governor of California and his wife attended a dinner on 11/6/20 with at least 12 people with more than three households present. Neither the people involved nor the restaurant will say how many people were present nor how many households were represented.

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Devastating impact from shutdown visible in higher education, cancer treatment, pending evictions, and state government finances.

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Every day there are fresh reports of the devastating impact from the shutdown of the economy. Damage is widespread. Impact is growing.

Just a few of the recent articles:

  • Early screening for cancer slowed down earlier, resulting in more serious cancers discovered now
  • People showing up for treatment have more advanced cancer
  • Wave of tenant evictions is on the horizon
  • State government budgets are collapsing
  • Freshman enrollment at colleges is down 16%

There is a severe cost to be paid from early mistakes and ongoing mistakes by a wide range of government officials.

 

Devastating impact from more serious cancers

10/15/20 – Wall Street Journal – Covid-19 Outbreaks Led to Dangerous Delay in Cancer Diagnoses – The closing of many health facilities meant regular screenings for cancer were not available for several months this past spring. Next, widespread panic kept people away from doctors’ offices. One insurance company reports the number of daily screenings for colorectal cancer dropped between 50% and 80% for about three months.

Only at the end of August was the number of screenings back to the normal amount compared to prior years.

The expected result?

A cancer care provider reports an increased number of patients are arriving with advanced stages of cancer.

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Economic damage from shutdown continues to spread.

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Summarized below are a few of the recent articles pointing to expanding economic damage from the shutdown. Destruction in the movie business is noticeable in recent days:

  • Second largest movie chain in the US closes all its theaters
  • Wonder Woman director worried the entire theater industry may die
  • Disney restructures in order to increase focus toward direct-to-consumer distribution channel and away from theatrical release
  • Sales tax collections in San Francisco collapse
  • Passenger cruise ships are getting scrapped

10/5/20 – Wall Street Journal – Regal Cinemas Suspending Operations at All US Locations – The chain with the second largest number of theaters in the U.S. has closed all of its US theaters after having reopened only two months ago. Article does not indicate when any of the theaters will be reopened.

Article says release dates for a dozen movies have been postponed.

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Economic bad news keeps rolling in, but hint of good news is on the horizon.

Parked airplanes idled by pandemic shutdown. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

The bad news on the economy called for the shutdown just keeps growing but there is a hint of good news in the near future. First the good news. 9/30/20 – CNBC – US economy plunges 31.4% in the second quarter but a big rebound is expected – Commerce Department calculations of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter were revised, which is routine, dropping from an annualized contraction of 31.7% down just a little to 31.4% reduction in GDP. (more…)

Minimal drop in number of new unemployment claims for last four weeks as of 9/26/20; more people going back to work.

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The number of new claims for unemployment for week ending 9/26/20 has been about the same over the last five weeks, in the mid- to high 800 thousands. Last big drop was the week of 8/29/20. To again put this in context, before the government induced shutdown of the economy new claims averaged about 220,000 per week.

Good  news is the number of continuing claims for unemployment is continuing to drop, which means that more people are going back to work than loosing their job.

The devastating impact of the economic shutdown continues to be painfully obvious.

New Graphs

Starting this week that way the information is presented for this ongoing analysis will be in graphs.

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Observations from San Diego on economic destruction from shutdown.

View directly underneath Coronado Bridge shows the arches in the support towers. Photo by James Ulvog.

It is sad to personally observe the economic devastation from the shutdown.

We spent a few days in San Diego last week. Stayed at a hotel downtown near the harbor. Saw several things showing the severity of the economic damage.

Air travel

For quite a long time airplanes have not been allowed to leave San Diego International Airport until 6:30. It is funny to hear the first engine rev up a few seconds after 6:30 a.m.

I have noticed on previous vacations that there is a string of airplanes lined up ready to leave right at the stroke at 6:30. The planes take off approximately 1 minute apart.

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Destruction in the educational world caused by the lockdown.

Education today. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Growing indications point towards ongoing damage to learning at all educational levels due to the shut down. From kindergartners to college students there will be losses of learning time and knowledge.

Older students will be able to catch up. Motivated students will get through. I fear youngsters in particular and unmotivated students in general will suffer permanent damage from the lockdown.

Consider all the damage described in the following articles is a result of a public policy choice made by a host of state and local officials.

The Dispatch – 9/10/20 – The sad realities of virtual learning. – Looks like kindergartners are disappearing from schools. Enrollment in Los Angeles Unified School District is down 14% from a year ago.

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The shutdown is killing people. Some estimates of ‘excess deaths’ from the lockdown.

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The comment that shutting down the economy represents a trade-off of lives versus jobs is an invalid comparison.

The real trade-off from a shutdown is lives versus lives.

People are dying because of the shutdown. The shutdown is killing people.

It is time to open the economy.

I don’t have time to summarize all the articles I have read making this point. Here are just three examples.

The pandemic is killing dementia patients

Washington Post – 9/16/20 – Pandemic isolation has killed thousands of Alzheimer’s patients while families watch from afar – The Washington Post, the Post, studied data from CDC to identify there have been 13,200 excess deaths from Alzheimer’s and dementia since the shutdown started. Excess deaths are the extra deaths over the number that would otherwise be expected because of some particular situation.

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Slight improvement in new unemployment claims for week ending 9/12/20.

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The number of new claims for unemployment for week ending 9/12/20 dropped a little, with “only” 860,000 people losing their jobs, down from an upwardly revised 893,000 the previous week. For contrast, before the government induced shutdown of the economy new claims averaged about 220,000 per week.

Better news in the data is the number of continuing claims for unemployment dropped about twice as much as the new claims, to 12.6M for the week ending 9/5/20.  That is the lowest since the shutdown started.

CNBC report on 9/17/20 says Jobless claims were lower than expected but unemployment growth is still sluggish. The number of new claims was slightly better than  the 875,000 which economists expected.

As I continue to sort out for myself what this means, will continue listing the stats I’m tracking.

The number of new claims for unemployment and number drawing unemployment is provided by Department of Labor. I calculated the net change, which I assume represents the number of new jobs, although it could also be that people dropping out of the job market wash into the new jobs number:

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New claims for unemployment slowly declining with new jobs exceeding new claims; 9/5/20

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

For the third time since start of the recession, the number of new claims for unemployment for the week ending 9/5/20 was below the 1,000,000 mark. For contrast, before the government induced shutdown of the economy, new claims averaged about 220,000 per week.

On the other hand, the number of new claims was flat for the week – the damage from the shutdown in terms of new claims did not go down.

As I continue to sort out for myself what this means, will keep listing the stats I’m tracking.

The number of new claims for unemployment and number drawing unemployment is provided by Department of Labor. I calculated the net change, which I assume represents the number of new jobs, although could also be that people dropping out of the job market could wash into that number:

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Devastation from government ordered shutdown of the economy – 1 of 3

What the California economy might look like by the time it is allowed to reopen. Photo of abandoned farm in North Dakota by James Ulvog.

Over the last several weeks I have accumulated a number of articles describing the economic and health damage caused by the government ordered shutdown of the economy.

I’ve been wanting to post these for a while. In light of the California government imposing more severe constraints on when the economy will be allowed to start functioning again, it is now time to publish.

Economic damage

7/30/20 – Wall Street Journal – US Economy Contracted at Record Rate last Quarter; Jobless Claims Rise to 1.43 million – The preliminary estimate of the collapse in the US economy for the second quarter came in at an annualized 32.9% drop. Again, that is annualized. In addition, it will be revised in each of the next two months as additional data is gathered by the feds.

That follows an annualized drop of 5% in the first quarter.

8/25/20 – CNBC – American Airlines to cut 19,000 jobs when federal aid expires in October(more…)