Increases in Producer Price Index continue at high rate and continue rising. Up 1.4% in March 2022.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.4% in March 2022. This follows the February increase revised up by 0.1% to 0.9%. The January increase was previously revised up by 0.2% to 1.2%.

That is 3.5% in the first quarter of 2022.

The increases are driven by strong consumer demand and constrained supply.

Powerful demand is compounded by trillions of dollars having been flooded into the economy. On the supply side, ongoing supply chain problems are compounded by things like shutting down Shanghai, a city of 27 million which takes off line all their production and stops shipping from a major port. Further restricting the supply side are also soaring energy prices due to U.S. federal policies and the war in Ukraine.

Keep in mind the prior month changes in PPI are revised as needed. This is in contrast to CPI, which is not revised.

This shows there are plenty of increases in wholesale prices, which means there is a lot of inflation heading our way because that is what producers and providers are experiencing. Those increases will hit us consumers soon.

Graph at the top of this post shows the monthly price change for total demand, final demand core (which excludes food, energy, and trade), along with three month average of the final demand.

With revisions, the year over year increase in PPI for recent months is:

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Consumer Price Index shows massive 1.2% increase in March. One year increase rises to 8.5%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased a staggering 1.2% in March 2022 after 0.8% in February

That is 2.6% for the last three months. Project three months out to a full year would be 10.4%

Graph at top of this post shows the monthly increase in the all-items index along with the core change, which excludes food and energy. Graph also shows an average of the preceding 12 months for the all-items indicator.

By the way, with the CPI accelerating the top number in all of these graphs had to be increased.  That is the result of high inflation that is accelerating,

The 12 month cumulative change continues to skyrocket. The monthly change in all items index and the cumulative change for 12 months looks as follows:

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The Fried-Chicken-Meal index continues to show severe inflation.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Introducing the fried-chicken-meal inflation index. 

Previous discussions on this blog have featured the consumer price index measuring prices paid by urban consumers, the producer price index measuring input prices paid by manufacturers and producers, along with the personal consumption expenditure index, which is the favorite measure of inflation at the Federal Reserve Bank.

Now we have the fried-chicken-index.

This newest inflation measure is based on the price charged in Rancho Cucamonga, California (including tax) for a three-piece chicken tenders meal with one side, biscuit, and medium soda as prepared by the Colonel from Kentucky.

According to this index, the price of the meal went up 4.7% in the first quarter of 2022.

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Personal Consumption Expenditure for February 2022 shows ongoing high inflation, with highest year over year increases in four decades.

Rising PCE price index is sitting at the highest level since 1982, which is 40 years ago.

Unless you are in your 60s or older, you have little memory of inflation at this severe a level.  If this sustains for a few more years, the impact will be brutal.

Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation index increased 0.6%, which follows 0.5% in January 2022 which was revised downward from 0.6%.

The core PCE inflation rate (without food and energy) was 0.4% in February, following 0.5% rise in January, matching the 0.5% increase for the previous three months. The October 2021 increase was revised up 0.1%.

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SEC releases proposed rules for public company emissions disclosures. Will create full employment for CPAs.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

The Securities and Exchange Commission issued proposed rules for emissions risk accounting and disclosures by public companies. After the 60 day comment window the SEC will work on final rules.

(Discussion from my other blog, Attestation Update, is posted here because of the impact these rules will have on economic freedom and prosperity. You can ponder the impact for yourself.)

The proposal creates three areas for measurement and disclosure. Scope 1 is emissions from a company’s own operations, whether it is manufacturing cars, producing coal, or running a bank. Scope 2 is emissions generated from the energy consumed by company as an input to their operations. This could be the electricity to operate the branches and computers of a bank or it could be all of the coal consumed to produce steel.

As if that does not stretch your brain far enough, there is Scope 3. Those are the missions of all of the vendors to a company and all the consumers of its products. This is not just immediate vendors and direct consumers. This includes the emissions of the vendors’ vendors and their vendors, all the way back to when raw materials were first pulled out of the ground.

This includes emissions generated by your customers as they use your products and also your customers’ customers’ emissions. This goes all the way to the end consumer. Furthermore, this is life cycle costs.

As a brain stretcher, for a utility providing natural gas to consumers Scope 3 would include the emissions generated as consumers heat their home. The lifecycle is very short since the gas will be used as soon as it arrives at the houses.

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Preliminary list of people who owe us apologies for the damage they caused. First round of admissions to overcounting Covid deaths.

Counting Covid deaths using CDC methodology. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Now that Covid infection rates have collapsed in the United States, our political and public health ‘leaders’ are backtracking on the steps they took which caused so much damage.

Before they take credit for a virus variant running its course and fading away, we need to be pay attention to all those who caused trauma by their actions and who had their thumb on the scales when quantifying the impact of the virus.

Articles for your consideration today:

  • CDC “accidentally” overcounted Covid deaths.
  • Massachusetts overcounted Covid deaths by including deaths from any cause whatsoever if a person had an infection diagnosis within 60 days prior to death.
  • An incomplete list of people and organizations who owe us profuse apologies for the damage they have caused.

3/18/22 – Reuters – CDC reports fewer COVID-19 pediatric deaths after data correction – CDC reduced their tally of deaths caused by Covid by 72,277. This includes 416 pediatric fatalities.

That is a 24% drop in the number of children they count as having died because of Covid. With the revised tally of 966,575 deaths in total that means they reduced the total count by 7.5%.

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Response to attack on integrity of missile launch crews and reliability of our ICBM force.

Minuteman II on static display at March Air Base Museum. Photo by James Ulvog.

On 3/10/22, Mr. Cole Smith attacked the integrity of U.S. Air Force officers pulling alert across the northern plain states as they monitor their ICBMs and maintain readiness to launch in the horrible event the President were to make the decision to do so.

He also attacked the safety and reliability of the missiles and warheads with an unsupported claim that

“…there have been more near-misses than the world knows.”

(Why is this discussion cross-posted from my other blog, Outrun Change? The only way we have so much political freedom, economic freedom, and religious freedom is that on the international stage, we have a powerful military to defend and protect those freedoms. This power pointedly relies heavily on nuclear weapons. On the national stage, our freedoms are defended and protected by the First and Second amendments to the Constitution. The Second Amendment is particularly relevant to guard the First.)

His support for attacking crew integrity is citation of a drug-incident involving 11 officers in 2013 and a test-cheating scandal involving 34 officers. Those are old reports (I won’t bother looking up date of the cheating incident) and well know to all.

Support for the more near-misses claim is an accident at Little Rock Air Force Base back in 1980. 

Um, that was 42 years ago.

The incident involved a Titan II ICBM. The Titans were liquid fueled. They have long since been retired with the last one pulled off alert in 1987.

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Producer Price Index up 0.8% in February 2022 with January revised upward from 1.0% to 1.2%.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.8% in February.   The previously reported 1.0% rise in January was revised to 1.2%. So that is actually a cumulative increase of 1.0% in February

Keep in mind the prior monthly increases PPI are revised as needed. This is in contrast to CPI which is not revised.

In February, core PPI, without food, energy, & trade, was up 0.2% in February with January revised downward from 0.9% to 0.8%.

For background, the Bureau of Labor Statistics provides a description of PPI:

“The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a family of indexes that measures the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. This contrasts with other measures, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), that measure price change from the purchaser’s perspective. Sellers’ and purchasers’ prices may differ due to government subsidies, sales and excise taxes, and distribution costs.”

So the PPI measures prices received by producers for their goods and services. Those costs roll into the goods and services you and I buy as end consumers.

This means the increases in wholesale prices, which show a lot of inflation, are heading our way as those increases work themselves into the CPI.

Graph at the top of this post shows the monthly price change for total demand with separate line for total demand goods and total demand services.

With revisions, the year over year increase in PPI is 10.0% in February and January, which is only a slight increase from 9.9% in December and November and the increases were just under 9.0% for October back to August.

Take a look at the year over year change in final demand and core change which means without food, energy, and trade.

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