A deep freezer, used for keeping large volumes of meat and vegetables frozen. That’s where the economies of California and Virginia are going to be stored for a long time. Image (but not commentary) courtesy of Adobe Stock
Many states are starting to open up their economy.
Virginia may be closed down tight for up to 24 more months.
California may not open up until August.
August.
There will be incalculable medical, emotional, and financial damage in California and Virginia from the lockdown. More on that momentarily.
This discussion will be posted on several of my blogs.
Good news
On the bright side, getting most attention for opening are:
- Texas
- Georgia
Other states are thawing because they also don’t want to bankrupt everyone, destroy all the hospitals, further tear down overall health levels, and permanently cripple their economy. List includes:
- Alaska
- Colorado
- Minnesota
- Montana
- Mississippi
- Ohio
- Oklahoma
- Pennsylvania
- South Carolina
- Tennessee
And then there is Virginia and California.
4/24/20 – Daily Progress – Northam outlines Virginia’s plan for emerging from the pandemic – Virginia will stay shut down until there are fourteen days of declining hospitalizaitons and declining positive tests. Since counts are only growing at a slowing rate, the 14 day clock has not started.
The states ‘Phase One’ will last until vaccines are readily available. The senior state health official thinks the first phase will last up to two years.
Two years. The initial phase of opening the Virginia economy will take two years. The full economy won’t be opened for at least two years.
4/23/20 – CalMatters – Even harder than shutting down: How does Newsom reopen California – Unnamed health advisors indicate the state should not reopen until there is a large increase in testing and a new “army” of workers who can trace contacts.
That leaves the governor thinking that the state will reopen in August. Of course being a good politician he indicated that is just his own opinion at this moment in time, which leaves him tons of wiggle room.
August.
That means massive unemployment for large portion of the state for May, June, July, and some portion of August.
That means restaurants, salons, and hundreds of thousands of businesses will be without revenue for half of March and all of April, May, June, and July. Four and a half months with no revenue to cover even the rent.
Few business operations will be able to reopen with that timeline.
I previously mentioned this article:
4/14/20 – Office of the governor – Governor Newsom Outlines Six Critical Indicators the State will Consider Before Modifying the Stay-at-Home Order and Other COVID-19 Interventions
Governor Newsom announced six indicators that will allow him to modify the stay-at-home orders. Quoting them, the indicators are:
- The ability to monitor and protect our communities through testing, contact tracing, isolating, and supporting those who are positive or exposed;
- The ability to prevent infection in people who are at risk for more severe COVID-19;
- The ability of the hospital and health systems to handle surges;
- The ability to develop therapeutics to meet the demand;
- The ability for businesses, schools, and child care facilities to support physical distancing; and
- The ability to determine when to reinstitute certain measures, such as the stay-at-home orders, if necessary.
By those “indicators” California won’t be opened until well after an effective vaccine is in use. Likelly August, as mentioned above.
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