economic freedom

More sectors of the economy being destroyed by shutdown of the economy.

Imagine all that frantic hustle and bustle of Denver airport back in 2018 dropping by 95%. Photo by James Ulvog.

I can barely type fast enough to keep up with the adverse impact on the economy or freedom. Can barely keep up with the news about entire sectors of the economy collapsing. Most recent sectors I’ve learned about:  airlines and the entire health care system. Since drafting this post last evening, learned about the destruction in the clean energy industry and saw some stats on the devastation in the restaurant sector.

This post will be printed on several of my blogs.

Airlines

4/20/20 – NewsMax – Big 3 US Airlines May Cut More Than 100,000 Jobs by Fall – At the moment passenger loads are frightening – article says domestic flights are averaging 10 passengers and international flights are averaging 24 people plus crew.

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By Jim Ulvog, ago

Some states start to open up at the same time California may be locked up for months.

image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Some states are already loosening some of the shutdown restrictions.

The ‘indicators’ announced by California, Oregon, and Washington indicate it may be months before any parts of the economy are allowed to revive.

Washington state and Texas show the stark contrast in approached.

(This discussion will be posted at several of my blogs.)

4/19/20 – USA Today – US reopening: What states are relaxing social distancing restrictions and moving away from lockdowns? – Several states have already dialed back parts of the lockdown. Others have announced dates to do so. A summary of the small steps:

  • Now – Florida, Minnesota, Vermont
  • April 24 – Texas Montana
  • May 1 – Ohio, Idaho, North Dakota

Californians will stay in lockdown for a very long time

4/14/20 – Office of the governor – Governor Newsom Outlines Six Critical Indicators the State will Consider Before Modifying the Stay-at-Home Order and Other COVID-19 Interventions

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By Jim Ulvog, ago

Additional indications of economic destruction from the shutdown.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Here are a few articles in the last few days describing the economic catastrophe that is expanding daily as we watch. Estimate is out that one out of four employees in Los Angeles are out of work. Higher education as an industry is in danger.

4/14/20 – American Enterprise Institute – The International Monetary Fund’s coronavirus reality check – The IMF expects a worse downturn than the ‘08/’09 Great Recession.  Global output is expected to have a US$9 trillion loss in output from what would have been expected.

For the US and Europe the loss will be equal to two years worth of economic growth.

4/17/20 – LAist – LA’s Latest Unemployment Numbers Are Staggering. An Estimated 1.3M Jobs Have Already Been Lost – Percent of LA county residents who are employed is estimated at 45%. That is down from 61% in March. The difference is 16%. Divide that by the 61% employed prior month indicates 26% of the people working a month ago are now unemployed. Data is from researchers at USC.

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By Jim Ulvog, ago

Magic of the price signal to change production levels.

Fourteen wells on one pad, located on the southeast side of Williston, N.D. Photo by James Ulvog.

The double black swan of COVID-19 pandemic from the demand side and Saudi Arabia flooding the market from the supply side is creating a sales problem and storage problem for the oil industry.

Regulators in Texas are thinking about about ordering a pro-rate reduction in production. In other words, they are considering giving each producer an order on how much to cut.

North Dakota has no such plans.

North Dakota is planning to rely on capitalism to rapidly adjust production.

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By Jim Ulvog, ago

Voiding of the U.S. Constitution by executive order.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Here are highlights of a few articles I’ve read over the last few days. Not all of the articles. Not all the issues. Not all the states.

Please see if you notice a trend.

(Cross-post from my other blog, Outrun Change.  Reposted here because actions by the following governors directly involves religious, political, and economic freedom.)

4/14/20 – Legal Insurrection – First Amendment Fail – Raleigh police: “Protesting is a non-essential activity” – Citizens protesting the shutdown of the economy – citizens mind you, not subjects – were told by the Raleigh, North Carolina police to disperse.  The police obviously announced that to the assembly and also sent out a message .

The police proclaimed, on twitter that:

“Protesting is a non-essential activity.”

See the article for a screen shot.

4/10/20 – Bridge – What Michigan’s new coronavirus stay-at-home executive order means – By executive fiat, the Michigan governor issued expansive orders restricting what can be sold and outlined a restrictive stay-at-home order.

Large stores, like Target, Lowe’s, and Home Depot may not sell:

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By Jim Ulvog, ago

Capitalism or fascism? Which economic system will better resolve the supply shortages?

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

How do we get enough of the respirators, personal protective equipment, and medicine we need to get through the COVID-19 pandemic?

Fascinating to watch the press conference Saturday 3/21/20 with various federal officials and members of the coronavirus task force.  Most fascinating feature was looking at the various comments and questions/answers from an economics perspective. Thought about Friday’s briefing as well.

Here is the difference in perspective I perceived: do we rely on capitalism or fascism as our model to get things done?

Underlying the comments from all the federal officials is the idea that the private sector can figure out how to provide everything we need.

The common thread underlying a huge portion of the questions from media is the idea that the federal government should tell which specific companies how much of which specific products to produce, specify they price they will charge, and provide the addresses for where to send each pallet of supplies.

In other words, should we use a capitalist model to provide goods we need or should we use the fascist model?

As a thumbnail description, in the fascist economic model the means of production are owned by the private sector but the central planning authority tells companies how much of which product to produce. In contrast, the next step away from freedom is communism, in which the means of production are owned by the government and a central planning agency decides how much of each specific product to produce.

Capitalism?

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By Jim Ulvog, ago

Didn’t ever expect I’d personally experience Soviet Union and Venezuelan style grocery stores.

Chaika 3 (on redscale film) – Queue by Jaroslav A. Polak is in the public domain (CC0 1.0). Lines like this outside a grocery store were normative in the Soviet Union.

In the Soviet Union and Venezuela, grocery shopping involved/involves listening for rumors of which store got a shipment overnight, standing in line for hours, looking at lots of empty shelves, and going to the store daily to see if what you need might actually be on the shelf today.

If you have been awake the last seven days, you know that is what grocery shopping looks like in the U.S. today.

The difference between the Evil Empire and the worker’s paradise of Venezuela on one hand and the United States on the other hand is that the supply chain in the U.S. is still stocking the shelves and in a week or two or three will have them filled up.

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By Jim Ulvog, ago

The 2010’s: best decade in history.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Matt Ridley explains the best improvement in living standards for us humans over a single decade is the decade that ends today, 12/31/19.

He explained his point from multiple directions on 12/21/19 in Spectator: We’ve just had the best decade in human history. Seriously.

A few of his points that caught my interest:

The rate of extreme poverty in the world has dropped from 60% when he was born to under 10% in this decade. If you ache to seek less people in dirt eating poverty that is a wonderful thing.

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By Jim Ulvog, ago